La conveniencia de incorporar a Rusia y Turquía a la Unión Europea – Parte II (página 6)

Turkey"s Participation in Global Value Chains – An Overview

108. Turkey"s participation in GVCs is comparable with other middle income countries. The participation index measures the foreign value added embodied in domestic gross exports and the domestic value added embodied in third countries gross exports. The higher the foreign value added embodied in gross exports and the higher the value of inputs exported to third countries and used in their exports, the higher the participation of a given country in the value chain. The OECD (2012) has computed this indicator for OECD countries and selected non-OECD countries (Figure 37). It finds that Turkey"s participation rate is just below

50 percent. Country size – in particular relative to regional peers – appears to matter. Both in advanced and emerging economies, smaller countries such as the Czech Republic, Singapore, Estonia, the Slovak Republic and Chinese Taipei post participation rates between 60 percent and 80 percent. By contrast larger countries have a lower participation index. The participation rate of Turkey is about the same as the one of India, Italy, the UK and Japan. It is higher than the participation of comparable middle-sized emerging countries such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, and also slightly higher than that of China. The relatively low index for China -below the value for Japan and Germany and at the same level as the USA- might seem somewhat surprising. This reflects both a lower Chinese value added in third countries" exports and a lower foreign value added in China"s gross exports as commonly perceived.

110. Turkey is a preferred destination for final assembly platforms. Other countries in this same category are the Dominican Republic, Honduras and Mexico in the Americas; Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Tunisia in the European and Mediterranean region; China, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam in Asia (Van Aasche, 2012). This is consistent with the findings from similar studies using alternative methodologies. Taymaz et al. (2011), dividing the production process of traded goods into five different categories according to UN Broad Economic Category (primary goods; intermediate inputs, semi-finished products, intermediate inputs, parts and accessories; and consumption goods), find that Turkey specializes in downstream labor intensive segments of the value chain. Turkey exports mostly consumption goods and semi-finished products as intermediate inputs and imports semi-finished products, capital goods and primary goods. It specializes in sectors and production processes that are labor intensive. These patterns are fully consistent with a country specializing in assembly intensive activities. Since the participation of Turkish companies in GVCs is focused mainly on assembly activities, "functional upgrading", as described above is important for moving to higher value added activities. Turkey has managed successful functional upgrading in the textiles sector and this experience could be replicated to other sectors.

111. One of Turkey"s advantages as a source country for production facilities is its good connectivity, particularly with European markets, while trade costs for distant markets remain higher. Differences in size and endowments of national economies are not the only explanation for differences in the volume of trade and in its complexity, in terms of export participation and diversification of trade patterns. Distance and supply-side constraints and inefficiencies play a large role. Bilateral trade costs between countries capture the price equivalent of the reduction of international trade as compared with the potential implied by domestic production in the origin country and consumption in the destination markets (Anderson 2002, Novy 2009). Higher bilateral trade costs result in smaller bilateral trade flows.

112. Turkey has relatively favorable (low) trade costs when compared to competitors in the region (Figure 38, left-hand side panel). Trade costs vis-à-vis EU markets are lower for Turkey -in particular with France and Germany- although Turkey has a larger geographical distance to these countries than Romania, Bulgaria or Greece and is economically less integrated with them. With respect to Italy on the other hand, Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey have about the same level of bilateral trade costs. With distant markets, such as the US, China, Brazil or Japan, Turkey does unequivocally better than Greece or other Black Sea countries (Figure 38, right-hand side panel). Compared to the larger members of the EU (Germany, Italy and France), however, Turkey"s trade costs are almost twice as high. These differences are important if Turkey wants to upgrade its position in value chains, as doing so means increasingly competing with them.

113. Low trade costs are reflected in Turkey"s relatively good logistics performance. The performance of international supply chains is measured using the Logistics Performance Index (LPI). It is based on the assessment of logistics professionals located in the country"s major trading partners, and is a weighted average of six components that are critical for logistics performance. Turkey compares well with its neighbors and current competitors in logistics performance (Figure 39). It is 27th in global rankings, just below China and above Portugal, which occupy the 26th and 28th position respectively. The comparison is even more favorable when the LPI is adjusted for the level of development as measured by the gross national income per capita; Turkey performs better than countries with similar per capita income (Figure 40). The good logistics performance of Turkey is an indication that connectivity and supply chain related reforms and improvements have been successful. These two parameters are those in which the country has advanced most over the last four-five years…

A Snapshot of Services Exports

143. Turkey"s services exports are reasonably well developed.53 At US$ 34 billion in 2010, services exports were equivalent to 28 percent of the value of goods exports in the country (or 22 percent of all goods and services exports). The size of Turkey"s services export compares favorably to that of the BRICS and regional peers (Figure 46, second graph). The share of services in the total goods and services export basket is higher in Turkey than in all other comparators, with the significant exception of India. And only Poland has higher services exports per capita than Turkey.

144. This good performance mirrors the dominance of services in the domestic economy. Services account for more than 60 percent of Turkey"s GDP with tourism taking a particularly important role both in GDP and in services exports. The share of services in total GDP is in line with Turkey"s GDP per capita compared to other countries (Figure 46, first graph).

145. However, despite their importance, the growth in the export of services has been slow over the past decade. Exports of services from Turkey expanded at an annualized rate of 6.8 percent during the decade. This is below the global average and the pace of expansion in relevant peer countries and is also below the 15 percent pace of expansion of Turkey"s merchandize exports. Taken together, these facts suggest there might be untapped opportunities for services trade.

146. The sophistication of Turkey"s services exports has fallen over time. An index of the sophistication of services exports can be calculated in a way analogous to merchandize exports. More sophisticated services are those mostly traded by high income countries such as financial and insurance services or computer and information services. Figure 47 shows that between 1996 and 2008, the sophistication of Turkey"s services exports worsened. Turkey has specialized increasingly in service exports typical for middle-income countries, such as transport and tourism, but failed to develop exports of financial, IT or professional services. Indeed, transport and tourism account for as much as 85 percent of total services exports.

147. The tourism sector dominates services exports to an unusual extent. Figure 48 shows changes in the composition of services over time, focusing on 2001, 2004, 2007, and 2009. Travel accounts for two-thirds of Turkish services exports by 2009. This is around three times higher than the global average. Business services, in contrast, account for about 8 percent, half the average of the other upper-middle income countries in ECA.

Country partnership strategy for Republic of Turkey for the period 2012-2015

The World Bank Group

Executive Summary

i. Turkey"s rapid growth and development over the last decade is one of the success stories of the global economy. Today, Turkey is an upper middle income country with a population of 75 million and a gross domestic product of US$ 735 billion, making it the 16th largest economy in the world. It is the Government"s stated intention that Turkey becomes one of the world"s 10 largest economies by 2023, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish Republic. Turkey is an EU accession candidate country, a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the G20, and an increasingly important donor of bilateral Official Development Assistance (ODA). Turkey is one of the largest middle income partners of the World Bank Group (WBG).

ii. Turkey faces significant economic risks going forward, including spillover from the European debt crisis. With low domestic savings, Turkey"s economic growth relies on capital inflows to finance investments and growth. The country"s large current account deficit and the composition of its financing remain critical concerns. A weak outlook for global activity and more severe international funding strains have the potential to spill over to Turkey. Turkey"s dependence on external financing has left the country prone to boom-bust cycles, and the key challenge going forward is to deliver a soft landing, from the high growth rates in 2010 and 2011.

iii. Other countries, notably in the Middle East and North Africa, are looking to Turkey, with its gains in income and social outcomes in recent years, as an interesting development model to emulate. Per capita income almost tripled in less than a decade and now exceeds US$ 10,000. The Government"s 2023 "vision" aims for per capita income to reach US$ 25,000. Poverty decreased from 28.1 percent in 2003 to 17.1 percent in 2008, increasing by 1 percentage point to 18.1 percent in 2009 as a result of the global crisis. It is expected to have fallen since then as labor markets, the main channel through which the crisis affected households, recovered quickly, with seasonally adjusted unemployment at 9.1 percent and the employment rate at 45.4 percent in October 2011, improving on pre-crisis levels. Economic growth and social policies are behind these achievements. The results of the nation-wide Health Transformation Program launched in 2003, for example, include remarkable gains in the health status of the Turkish people, particularly among women. At the same time, regional, gender, and other disparities persist, and inequality remains a challenge.

iv. This Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) aims to contribute to Turkey"s goal of fast, sustainable and inclusive growth that respects the environment. Its design reflects priorities established in Turkey"s own development frameworks, notably the Ninth Development Plan 2007-2013 and the 2012-2014 Medium-Term Programs (MTP), and is intended to be flexible to adapt to changes. The main criterion for WBG support in Turkey is its "strategic value-added", through a combination of financing, analysis and advice, implementation support to help address development challenges, and the sharing of global experience to provide benchmarks and help inform the development and implementation of policies and programs.

v. The CPS has three main strategic objectives and pillars: enhanced competitiveness and employment; improved equity and public services; and, deepened sustainable development. In pursuit of these objectives, the Turkish government, private sector, civil society and the WBG plan to work together toward ten key outcomes during the four-year CPS period, as set out in Figure A.

vi. Strategic Objective 1: "Enhanced Competitiveness and Employment". Planned CPS activities include: (i) support for the adoption and implementation of the National Employment Strategy currently under preparation with Development Policy Loan (DPL) financing and analytical and advisory activities (AAA). The aim is to enhance productive employment, particularly the activation of low-skilled youth and women into formal employment and the expansion of employment activation programs, focused on skills upgrading; (ii) support for investment and business environment reforms and the completion of the review of the national competition policy framework; and, (iii) provision of medium and long-term funding to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and exporters.

vii. Strategic Objective 2: "Improved Equity and Public Services". Planned CPS activities include: (i) increasing financing for early childhood education (ECE); (ii) strengthening the Ministry of Health"s stewardship functions (not its role as service provider); (iii) the development and implementation of the private sector gender equity certification program; and, (iv) analytic and advisory work on state-owned enterprises (SOE) governance.

viii. Strategic Objective 3: "Deepened Sustainable Development". Planned CPS activities include: (i) policy advice and financing to address energy, environmental and climate change challenges in a more integrated manner; (ii) support for the completion of a water basin management strategy; and (iii) analysis, advice, and investment financing, by IBRD and IFC, for the Sustainable Cities Program, which is grounded in Turkey"s Integrated Urban Development Strategy and Action Plan 2010-2023.

ix. "Sharing Turkey"s Experience – Results, Knowledge and Capacity" is a dimension of the CPS that cuts across all three objectives. Turkey and the World Bank are exploring avenues to collaborate in sharing Turkey"s successful economic and social reforms. Two areas of particular focus include: health sector policy, reform, and performance; and disaster prevention and mitigation. The WBG intends to use its global network to work with Turkey in sharing these experiences and successes with a wider international audience.

x. While Turkey will remain a large-scale borrower during this CPS period, the role of analytical and advisory activities will grow in relative terms. Knowledge services and technical assistance add value through the provision of analysis, global experience, and hands-on implementation support. Reflecting the Government"s ongoing demand for analytical and advisory services, the share of AAA spending in IBRD"s total work program budget for Turkey steadily increased over the last four years. Responding to the Government"s request for continued high levels of IBRD financing, the CPS FY12-15 envisages an IBRD financing program in the order of up to US$ 4.45 billion. IFC"s own-account investment program in Turkey is expected to remain in the range of US$ 425-500 million a year or, US$ 1.7-2.0 billion for the CPS period.

xi. What we can learn from the past partnership with Turkey. The WBG is most effective when it combines the skills of its three arms: IBRD, IFC and MIGA. Opportunities for mutually complementary work are high in areas such as supporting SMEs, exporters, and energy efficiency investments, which will continue to feature prominently in the new CPS. Lessons from the FY08-11 CPS include:

• The systematic development and maintenance of a policy dialogue in support of long-term strategic goals, combining knowledge and lending operations, are vital to support reforms.

• The new engagement on environment and climate change, which started during the previous CPS, illustrates the importance of identifying strategic entry points for policy dialogue and seizing opportunities to strengthen engagement as country priorities evolve.

• An increased focus on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) during the last CPS period, welcomed by the Turkish authorities, resulted in a deepening of the Turkey-WBG partnership.

• In a number of fields Turkey"s policies and reforms, some of which were conducted in partnership with the WBG, have gained international recognition. This provides an opportunity for Turkey and the WBG to work together in sharing knowledge and experience with countries in the region and further afield.

xii. The outcomes of this CPS are subject to significant external economic risks. Increasing global uncertainty and deteriorating prospects for economic growth and stability in Europe and other developed economies create downside risks to global demand for Turkish exports, to output growth and correspondingly fiscal performance, and to the availability of international private capital flows to finance Turkish investments. The key to mitigating the most severe risks of further global economic disruption lies in sound economic management – and in particular measures to contain and reduce the current account deficit. Over the medium term, increased productivity, the expansion and diversification of exports, higher domestic savings, and greater energy efficiency and diversification of energy sources are the keys to reducing Turkey"s reliance on external finance. Turkey faces political and economic risks to the effective implementation of complex and challenging reforms – which can however be mitigated through systematic policy dialogue, participatory project preparation and implementation and evidence-based analytic work. Turkey also faces significant risk of natural disaster as the recent, tragic earthquakes in the Van region have shown.

Country context

Country Background and Political & Social Context

1. Turkey"s rapid growth and development over the last decade is one of the success stories of the global economy. Today, Turkey is an upper middle income country with a population of 75 million and a gross domestic product of US$ 735 billion, making it the 16th largest economy in the world. Per capita income almost tripled in less than a decade and now exceeds US$ 10,000. Standard & Poor"s upgraded Turkey"s local currency credit rating to investment grade in September 2011. Turkey has already met the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for maternal and infant mortality as well as universal primary education, and is well on the way towards meeting its other MDGs by 2015. Turkey is an EU accession candidate country, a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the G20, and an increasingly important donor of bilateral Official Development Assistance (ODA). Turkey is one of the largest middle income partners of the WBG.

2. Economic growth has been aided by a long period of political stability. In June 2011, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a mandate for a third-term of single-party government, with 327 seats in Turkey"s 550 seat unicameral Parliament. Constitutional reform is high on the agenda. The Turkish people approved an earlier package of constitutional reforms by referendum in September 2010. Parliament started work on a new constitution in October 2011 and expects to complete a draft by the end of 20124. Approval of constitutional changes or a new constitution will require a two-third parliamentary majority (367 votes or more), or a 60 percent majority (330 votes or more) and adoption in a public referendum.

3. Turkey"s regional and global role is growing. Turkey has set out to strengthen relations with countries in the region, broadening its engagement with the Middle East and increasing its presence in Africa, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Recent political developments in the Middle East and North Africa have focused regional and worldwide attention on Turkey"s political and economic system, inspiring other countries. Prime Minister Erdogan acknowledged this interest in his June 2011 election victory speech, which outlined Turkey"s willingness to extend and deepen ties across the region.

4. Turkey made gains in social outcomes – supported by a decade of economic growth. Poverty decreased from 28.1 percent in 2003 to 17.1 percent in 2008 (using the national poverty line), but remained unchanged in rural areas. Extreme poverty has virtually disappeared. Inequality has declined but still remains a challenge. The crisis affected households mainly through the labor market. It led to a one percentage point increase in the poverty rate in 2009 according to official estimates. Although more recent figures are not yet available, poverty is likely to have come down after the crisis, as labor markets recovered quickly, with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate falling to 9.1 percent and the employment rate rising to 45.4 percent by October 2011, improving on pre-crisis levels. Economic growth, social policies, and the nation-wide Health Transformation Program launched in 2003, are behind these achievements. The health status of the Turkish people has improved, particularly that of women. Maternal mortality fell from 29 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2005 to 16.4 deaths in 2010, while infant mortality fell from 25 deaths in 2005 to 10.1 deaths in 2010, meeting the MDG targets for maternal and infant mortality. There has also been an increase in access to education, particularly among girls: Turkey has virtually achieved universal primary education and increased secondary school enrollment to 69 percent.

5. European Union (EU) accession continues to be a priority. Turkey has a deep-rooted relationship with the EU. The EU is Turkey"s largest economic partner, accounting for 46 percent of Turkish trade in 2010. Turkey became a candidate for full membership in the EU at the Helsinki summit in 1999. Accession negotiations began in October 2005 and continue to progress, albeit slower than Turkey would like. Following the June 2011 elections, the Government upgraded the institution which oversees EU accession into the new Ministry for EU Affairs. Negotiations on 13 chapters of the Acquis Communautaire are currently open. One of the 35 Chapters (Chapter 25: Science & Research) has been opened and provisionally closed. Turkey is determined to continue its reforms on the way to EU accession, its strategic objective. Turkey has benefited significantly from deepening integration with the EU through growing sophistication of both exports and imports and access to financing.

II. Economic context

III. Vision and development challenges

(The extreme downside scenario described above the interest rate would go up, the exchange rate would depreciate and GDP contract and fiscal performance would deteriorate)

Autor:

Ricardo Lomoro